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Predictions, Table of Contents

PREDICTIONS - SOCIETY'S TELLTALE SIGNATURE REVEALS THE PAST AND FORECASTS THE FUGTURE

PROLOGUE

Spicy Talk and a Stimulating Meal

1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING

Invariants

Safety in Cars

Rationing Computer Innovation

Humans versus Machines

Do Animals All Die at the Same Age?

The Bell-Shaped Curve of the Life Cycle

The S-Curve of Cumulative Growth

The Law of Natural Growth

Controls on Rabbit Populations

Gauss for Statistics was Like Bach for Music-an Ingenious Forger

2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK

How Much Order Is There in "Random" Discoveries?

Learning From Success

Could You Take Aim at an Apple on Your Son's Head?

A Real Case

The Industry Learning Curve

Going West

Mesopotamia, the Moon and the Matterhorn

3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMATE REPRODUCTION

Do Not Try to Forecast What You Already Know.

Man-made Dinosaurs

Mama Earth

Did Christianity Begin Before Christ?

4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY

Mozart Dies of Old Age

Did Einstein Publish Too Much?

Can We Predict Our Own Death?

Searching for Failures of the S-Curve Approach

An Unnatural Suicide Attempt

A "Fertility" Template

Contemporary Geniuses

Innovation in Computer Making

5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE THE SAME WAY

Criminal Careers

Killer Diseases

When Will There be a Miracle Drug for AIDS?

6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE

Straight Lines in Nature

The Cultural Resistance to Innovation

Unnatural Substitutions

The Swedes are Coming

Fishing and Prying

7. "COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND THE REGULATOR"

When it Rains it Pours

Successive Substitutions

Only One Front-Runner at a Time

Transport Infrastructures

The Primary Energy Picture

The Disease "Market"

Nobel Prize Awards

8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT

The Wall Street Crash of 1987

Matters of Life and Death

Epitaphs

9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE

Clocking the Transport of the Future

Futuronics

On the Possibility and Desirability of Peace

Global Village in 2025

10. IF I CAN, I WANT

What Makes a Tourist

The Nutritional Value of New Impressions

From Tourism to S-curves

From S-curves to Chaos

Before and After Chaos

11. FORECASTING DESTINY

Decision Non-makers

A System's Predictability

Wasteful Computers

Little Choice

EPILOGUE

APPENDIX A. MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION OF S-CURVES AND THE PROCEDURE FOR FITTING THEM ON DATA

The Predator-Pray Equations

The Malthusian Case: One Species Only

One-to-One Substitutions: Two Competitors in a Niche

Multiple Competition: Many Competitors at the Same Time

Fitting and S-curve on a Set of Data Points

APPENDIX B. EXPECTED UNCERTAINTIES ON S-CURVE FORECASTS

APPENDIX C. ADDITIONAL FIGURES

NOTES AND SOURCES

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

INDEX

 
 
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