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An S-Shaped Adventure: Predictions - 20 Years Later, Table of Contents

PROLOGUE
Twenty Years Later
When Real Life Misbehaves

1. THE S-CURVE
The Law of Natural Growth
Fatal Car Accidents
Invariants
Deviations

2. LIMITS TO GROWTH
GDP Growth Is Capped
Inflation
GDP Growth in Other Parts of the World
Discussion
The Coming of Age of the United States

3. SUBSTITUTIONS
One-to-One Substitutions
Successive Substitutions
Diseases
Means of Transportation
Nobel Prize Awards
Fishing and Prying

4. WHERE HAS THE ENERGY PICTURE GONE WRONG?
US Crude oil
The Wordl Energy Picture
When Will Hydrogen Come?
The Price of Primary Energy
World Energy Needs
In Closing

5. DEVIATIONS FROM NATURAL GROWTH
From S-Curves to chaos
Energy Consumption
The Concord
Insights into Fluctuations
S-Curves with Variable Ceiling

6. THE KONDRATIEFF CYCLE
Atlantic Tropical Hurricanes
Sunspots
Earth's Temperature
Seasons of Growth

  • 7. CASCADES OF S CURVES
    Just-in-Time Replacement
    Fractals of S-Curves
    The MicroVAX Family of DEC Minicomputers
    Microsoft Windows Operating Systems
    When Do We Stop Being Children?
    In Closing

    8. GENETIC REENGINEERING OF CORPORATIONS
    More than One Species in the Same Niche
    Attacker's Advantage, Defender's Counterattack
    Competition Management
    Finding the Magic Advertising Message
    Nobel Laureates
    Who Is Afraid of the Big Bad Wolf?

    9. THE PRIMORDIAL CURVE AND THE SINGULARITY
    The Primordial S-Curve
    The Singularity Myth
    There Are No Exponentials. There Are only S-Curves
    US Oil Production
    Moore's Law
    World Population
    There Is alreay some Evidence for Saturation
    The US GDP
    The End of the Internet Rush
    Society Auto-regulates Itself
    Fatal Car Accidents
    The AIDS Niche
    Nuclear Energy
    World Population - The Big Picture
    More than just Cerebral Intelligence
    The Human Species Is not Threatened
    The Bitcoin
    In Closing
    Playing the Devil's Advocate

    EPILOGUE

    APPENDIX A. OTHER UPDATES FOR PREDICTIONS

    APPENDIX B. MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION OF S-CURVES AND THE PROCEDURE FOR FITTING THEM ON DATA
    The Malthusian Case: One Species Only
    The Volterra-Lotka Equations: Two Competitors in a Niche
    Logistic vs. Chaos Equations
    Fitting an S-curve on a Set of Data Points
    Fitting an S-curve with a Variable Ceiling

    APPENDIX C. EXPECTED UNCERTAINTIES ON S-CURVE FORECASTS

    NOTES AND SOURCES

    APPENDIX D. DISTINGUISHING A LOGISTIC FROM AN EXPONENTIAL

    APPENDIX E. THE CANONICAL MILESTONES

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