PROLOGUE
Twenty Years Later
When Real Life Misbehaves
1. THE SCURVE
The Law of Natural Growth
Fatal Car Accidents
Invariants
Deviations
2. LIMITS TO GROWTH
GDP Growth Is Capped
Inflation
GDP Growth in Other Parts of the World
Discussion
The Coming of Age of the United States
3. SUBSTITUTIONS
OnetoOne Substitutions
Successive Substitutions
Diseases
Means of Transportation
Nobel Prize Awards
Fishing and Prying
4. WHERE HAS THE ENERGY PICTURE GONE WRONG?
US Crude oil
The Wordl Energy Picture
When Will Hydrogen Come?
The Price of Primary Energy
World Energy Needs
In Closing
5. DEVIATIONS FROM NATURAL GROWTH
From SCurves to chaos
Energy Consumption
The Concord
Insights into Fluctuations
SCurves with Variable Ceiling
6. THE KONDRATIEFF CYCLE
Atlantic Tropical Hurricanes
Sunspots
Earth's Temperature
Seasons of Growth
7. CASCADES OF S CURVES
JustinTime Replacement
Fractals of SCurves
The MicroVAX Family of DEC Minicomputers
Microsoft Windows Operating Systems
When Do We Stop Being Children?
In Closing
8. GENETIC REENGINEERING OF CORPORATIONS
More than One Species in the Same Niche
Attacker's Advantage, Defender's Counterattack
Competition Management
Finding the Magic Advertising Message
Nobel Laureates
Who Is Afraid of the Big Bad Wolf?
9. THE PRIMORDIAL CURVE AND THE SINGULARITY
The Primordial SCurve
The Singularity Myth
There Are No Exponentials. There Are only SCurves
US Oil Production
Moore's Law
World Population
There Is alreay some Evidence for Saturation
The US GDP
The End of the Internet Rush
Society Autoregulates Itself
Fatal Car Accidents
The AIDS Niche
Nuclear Energy
World Population  The Big Picture
More than just Cerebral Intelligence
The Human Species Is not Threatened
The Bitcoin
In Closing
Playing the Devil's Advocate
EPILOGUE
APPENDIX A. OTHER UPDATES FOR PREDICTIONS
APPENDIX B. MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION OF SCURVES AND THE PROCEDURE FOR FITTING THEM ON DATA
The Malthusian Case: One Species Only
The VolterraLotka Equations: Two Competitors in a Niche
Logistic vs. Chaos Equations
Fitting an Scurve on a Set of Data Points
Fitting an Scurve with a Variable Ceiling
APPENDIX C. EXPECTED UNCERTAINTIES ON SCURVE FORECASTS
NOTES AND SOURCES
APPENDIX D. DISTINGUISHING A LOGISTIC FROM AN
EXPONENTIAL
APPENDIX E. THE CANONICAL MILESTONES
